S&P affirms Belarus ratings at 'B/B'; Outlook Negative on Sep 20
<p> MINSK, Sep 20 - PrimePress. S&P Global Ratings on 17 Sep 2021 affirmed its ‘B/B’ long- and short-term foreign- and local-currency sovereign credit ratings on Belarus. The outlook remains negative. </p> <p> </p> <p> “Belarus’ economic outlook is fragile, and the country remains in a state of protracted political crisis following the disputed presidential election in August 2020. Despite a rebound this year, we forecast the country's economy will contract 0.7% in 2022 as international sanctions take full effect. However, Russia's logistical and financial support, coupled with the recent IMF Special Drawing Rights allocation, will substantially mitigate short-term external liquidity risks. We therefore affirmed our 'B/B' long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on Belarus with a negative outlook.” </p> <p> </p> <p> “The negative outlook on Belarus indicates the risk that international sanctions and the protracted political crisis could weigh on the country's economic, balance-of-payments, and fiscal performance more than we expect over the next 12 months. The outlook also factors in the possibility that timely financial support to Belarus from Russia could become less predictable, perhaps due to stricter conditions that Belarus might find difficult to meet in some instances.” </p> <p> </p> <p> “We could lower the ratings on Belarus if we perceive that existing and possible new international sanctions will likely result in more severe implications for its macroeconomic outlook than we project. Rating downside could also emerge if timely financial support from Russia proves inadequate or less forthcoming. Both scenarios would pressure the country's international reserves and weaken the government’s ability to meet its upcoming public debt redemptions.” </p> <p> </p> <p> “Belarus authorities are planning to reroute the sanctioned exports away from the EU to other markets and logistical hubs, primarily in Russia. It appears that Russia's transport infrastructure and market capacity will likely accommodate at least some of these flows, softening the sanctions impact.” </p> <p> </p> <p> “However, like never before, our economic projections remain subject to a high degree of uncertainty. This is because of the impact of international sanctions on top of the protracted political crisis, which will likely weigh on domestic investor and consumer confidence.” </p> <p> </p> <p> As previously reported, in September 2020, S&P downgraded the forecast for long-term sovereign credit ratings of Belarus in foreign and national currencies from ‘stable’ to ‘negative’, affirming them at ‘B.’ The negative outlook reflected growing risks to financial stability of the national banking system, which is mainly controlled by the government. </p> <p> </p> <p> Subsequently, S&P kept affirming Belarus' credit ratings at 'B' with a negative outlook (in October 2020, March and June 2021). End </p>
2021-09-21
Primepress
S&P affirms Belarus ratings at 'B/B'; Outlook Negative on Sep 20
MINSK, Sep 20 - PrimePress. S&P Global Ratings on 17 Sep 2021 affirmed its ‘B/B’ long- and short-term foreign- and local-currency sovereign credit ratings on Belarus. The outlook remains negative.
“Belarus’ economic outlook is fragile, and the country remains in a state of protracted political crisis following the disputed presidential election in August 2020. Despite a rebound this year, we forecast the country's economy will contract 0.7% in 2022 as international sanctions take full effect. However, Russia's logistical and financial support, coupled with the recent IMF Special Drawing Rights allocation, will substantially mitigate short-term external liquidity risks. We therefore affirmed our 'B/B' long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on Belarus with a negative outlook.”
“The negative outlook on Belarus indicates the risk that international sanctions and the protracted political crisis could weigh on the country's economic, balance-of-payments, and fiscal performance more than we expect over the next 12 months. The outlook also factors in the possibility that timely financial support to Belarus from Russia could become less predictable, perhaps due to stricter conditions that Belarus might find difficult to meet in some instances.”
“We could lower the ratings on Belarus if we perceive that existing and possible new international sanctions will likely result in more severe implications for its macroeconomic outlook than we project. Rating downside could also emerge if timely financial support from Russia proves inadequate or less forthcoming. Both scenarios would pressure the country's international reserves and weaken the government’s ability to meet its upcoming public debt redemptions.”
“Belarus authorities are planning to reroute the sanctioned exports away from the EU to other markets and logistical hubs, primarily in Russia. It appears that Russia's transport infrastructure and market capacity will likely accommodate at least some of these flows, softening the sanctions impact.”
“However, like never before, our economic projections remain subject to a high degree of uncertainty. This is because of the impact of international sanctions on top of the protracted political crisis, which will likely weigh on domestic investor and consumer confidence.”
As previously reported, in September 2020, S&P downgraded the forecast for long-term sovereign credit ratings of Belarus in foreign and national currencies from ‘stable’ to ‘negative’, affirming them at ‘B.’ The negative outlook reflected growing risks to financial stability of the national banking system, which is mainly controlled by the government.
Subsequently, S&P kept affirming Belarus' credit ratings at 'B' with a negative outlook (in October 2020, March and June 2021). End