Russia’s Sberbank upgrades Belarus’ GDP forecast to minus 4-6% in 2020
<p> MINSK, Jun 2 - PrimePress. Sberbank of Russia upgraded its forecast for Belarus’ gross domestic product (GDP) dynamics in 2020 by 2 pp to minus 4-6%, which is connected with the refusal of the Belarusian authorities to impose quarantine amid the coronavirus pandemic. Previously, Sberbank Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) forecasted a 6-8% decline. </p> <p> </p> <p> According to the review, the deliberate rejection of quarantine measures enabled the Belarusian economy to show a smaller decline in April 2020 compared with other countries in the region despite the suspension of oil supplies early this year. </p> <p> </p> <p> According to CMR experts, the economy of Russia contracted in April by 10-15%, Ukraine – by 11%, Kazakhstan – by 7.5%, and Belarus – by 4.3%. </p> <p> </p> <p> On the minus side, Belarus sees a rapid increase in the number of persons infected with coronavirus. </p> <p> </p> <p> The experts emphasize that cross-country comparisons of economic activity should not inspire wishful thinking. The economy of Belarus is in trouble due to falling oil prices and a sharp decrease in external demand. Industrial output decreased in April 2020 by 7.1% year on year (9.7% in the manufacturing industry). </p> <p> </p> <p> “The decline in demand is forcing enterprises to increase stock balances. Stocks of finished products amounted to 79% of average monthly output as of May 1 against 65% a year before,” reads the review. </p> <p> </p> <p> As reported, the International Monetary Fund predicts a 6% reduction in Belarus’ GDP in 2020 (followed by 3.5% growth in 2021), the World Bank – 4% (1% growth in 2021), European Bank for Reconstruction and Development – by 5% (a 3.5% increase in 2021). End </p> <p> </p>
2020-06-03
Primepress
Russia’s Sberbank upgrades Belarus’ GDP forecast to minus 4-6% in 2020
MINSK, Jun 2 - PrimePress. Sberbank of Russia upgraded its forecast for Belarus’ gross domestic product (GDP) dynamics in 2020 by 2 pp to minus 4-6%, which is connected with the refusal of the Belarusian authorities to impose quarantine amid the coronavirus pandemic. Previously, Sberbank Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) forecasted a 6-8% decline.
According to the review, the deliberate rejection of quarantine measures enabled the Belarusian economy to show a smaller decline in April 2020 compared with other countries in the region despite the suspension of oil supplies early this year.
According to CMR experts, the economy of Russia contracted in April by 10-15%, Ukraine – by 11%, Kazakhstan – by 7.5%, and Belarus – by 4.3%.
On the minus side, Belarus sees a rapid increase in the number of persons infected with coronavirus.
The experts emphasize that cross-country comparisons of economic activity should not inspire wishful thinking. The economy of Belarus is in trouble due to falling oil prices and a sharp decrease in external demand. Industrial output decreased in April 2020 by 7.1% year on year (9.7% in the manufacturing industry).
“The decline in demand is forcing enterprises to increase stock balances. Stocks of finished products amounted to 79% of average monthly output as of May 1 against 65% a year before,” reads the review.
As reported, the International Monetary Fund predicts a 6% reduction in Belarus’ GDP in 2020 (followed by 3.5% growth in 2021), the World Bank – 4% (1% growth in 2021), European Bank for Reconstruction and Development – by 5% (a 3.5% increase in 2021). End