Russia may soothe impact of western sanctions on Belarus short term - expert
<p> MINSK, Jun 25 - PrimePress. The new sanctions imposed by the European Union (EU) against Belarus can be assessed as ‘very serious’, and Moscow will have to decide how to help Minsk soften the blow in the short term, said Ivan Timofeyev, program director of the Russian Council on Foreign Affairs, associate professor at MGIMO of the Russian Foreign Ministry. </p> <p> </p> <p> “The EU goes for a serious escalation of sanctions. In fact, sectoral restrictions are being imposed, very serious ones. The most sensitive are the bans on trade in oil products. Their share in Belarus’ export is large, about 17.6%,” Timofeyev told RIA Novosti. </p> <p> </p> <p> According to his assessment, in theory, Belarusian oil products can be delivered to the EU through Ukraine or Russia, but, perhaps, intermediaries will be afraid to do it for fear of falling under EU secondary sanctions. </p> <p> </p> <p> Another serious ban is on trade in certain types of fertilizers and access to EU capital markets. </p> <p> </p> <p> “In other words, the EU is building up pressure. Key channels of modernization of the Belarusian economy from the 'western flank' are being blocked. The possible decline in living standards is fraught with growing social tension and poses risks to the political system. Obviously, the main focus is now on an uncompromising and tough fight against the incumbent president of Belarus (Alexander Lukashenko – editor’s note). He may try to make concessions in order to reduce the pressure of sanctions. However, Brussels will probably now demand much more far-reaching reforms, fraught with serious domestic political consequences,” the expert said. </p> <p> </p> <p> For Russia - the closest ally of Belarus – “the situation is rather unfavourable". </p> <p> </p> <p> “The issue of aid to Belarus will become more acute. Russia is unlikely to fully compensate for Belarus’ losses, although it will be able to soften the blow in the short term. But in the long run such a model may fail. And it is precisely the sanctions that are designed to have a long-term effect. The risks of political destabilization in the ally country increase with the risk of subsequent aggravation of Russia's relations with the EU and other Western countries,” Timofeyev said. End </p>
2021-06-26
Primepress
Russia may soothe impact of western sanctions on Belarus short term - expert
MINSK, Jun 25 - PrimePress. The new sanctions imposed by the European Union (EU) against Belarus can be assessed as ‘very serious’, and Moscow will have to decide how to help Minsk soften the blow in the short term, said Ivan Timofeyev, program director of the Russian Council on Foreign Affairs, associate professor at MGIMO of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
“The EU goes for a serious escalation of sanctions. In fact, sectoral restrictions are being imposed, very serious ones. The most sensitive are the bans on trade in oil products. Their share in Belarus’ export is large, about 17.6%,” Timofeyev told RIA Novosti.
According to his assessment, in theory, Belarusian oil products can be delivered to the EU through Ukraine or Russia, but, perhaps, intermediaries will be afraid to do it for fear of falling under EU secondary sanctions.
Another serious ban is on trade in certain types of fertilizers and access to EU capital markets.
“In other words, the EU is building up pressure. Key channels of modernization of the Belarusian economy from the 'western flank' are being blocked. The possible decline in living standards is fraught with growing social tension and poses risks to the political system. Obviously, the main focus is now on an uncompromising and tough fight against the incumbent president of Belarus (Alexander Lukashenko – editor’s note). He may try to make concessions in order to reduce the pressure of sanctions. However, Brussels will probably now demand much more far-reaching reforms, fraught with serious domestic political consequences,” the expert said.
For Russia - the closest ally of Belarus – “the situation is rather unfavourable".
“The issue of aid to Belarus will become more acute. Russia is unlikely to fully compensate for Belarus’ losses, although it will be able to soften the blow in the short term. But in the long run such a model may fail. And it is precisely the sanctions that are designed to have a long-term effect. The risks of political destabilization in the ally country increase with the risk of subsequent aggravation of Russia's relations with the EU and other Western countries,” Timofeyev said. End