Prospects for China-Belarus relations depend on context of relations in Russia-Belarus-West triangle - expert
<p> MINSK, Dec 10 - PrimePress. The prospects for Chinese-Belarusian relations will be heavily influenced by the context of relations in the Russia-Belarus-West triangle. At the same time, Beijing will look for opportunities to protect its foreign economic interests in the Eastern European direction, reckons Vladimir Nezhdanov, expert at the Centre for Integration Prospects Studies. </p> <p> </p> <p> Nezhdanov’s article to this effect has been published on the website Eurasia. Expert. </p> <p> </p> <p> Nezhdanov says China is closely monitoring the dynamics of the current domestic political crisis in Belarus. At the same time, the Chinese media mention several basic scenarios of the source of events. The first of these scenarios allows the transition to a substantive dialogue between the supporters of the current President Alexander Lukashenko and the opposition in order to jointly seek solutions to the crisis. The likely result would be a compromise of political elites and amendment to the Constitution of Belarus in order to reformat the political system, including the subsequent transit of power (redistribution of powers between the main power institutions) under international supervision. </p> <p> </p> <p> The second scenario assumes the refusal of the Belarusian authorities to seek any compromises with their opponents, which may result in the escalation of internal political confrontation and corresponding increase of the sanctions pressure from the West. </p> <p> </p> <p> Finally, Chinese experts do not rule out that Lukashenko may step down and emigrate under pressure from external and internal factors. This scenario implies that Belarus today, like Ukraine in 2013-2014, is in the centre of confrontation between Russia and the West, which only aggravates the domestic political crisis and gives additional uncertainty to the potential course of its development. </p> <p> </p> <p> Among the reasons for protests in Belarus, China sees a bundle of both long-standing problems and fundamentally new challenges, the expert said. </p> <p> </p> <p> Belarus’ economy remains unbalanced mainly due to the dominance of the public sector and dependence of the country’s leading enterprises on foreign markets. The negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic exacerbates this imbalance: in January-July 2020, Belarus' gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 1.6% year on year, exports of goods - by 20.2%, and the Belarusian ruble against the dollar fell by 19%. </p> <p> </p> <p> "In addition to the above mentioned reasons for protest, there is a layer of economically independent people in Belarus who are ready to challenge the current political regime. In addition, the harsh actions of law enforcers and the authorities’ unpreparedness to engage in dialogue during the first days of the protest increased the loyalty of the population to the protesters.” </p> <p> </p> <p> Russia’s and Europe’s interest in Belarus initially internationalized the political crisis in the country. Although China perceives Belarus protests are mainly in the context of the Russia-Belarus-West triangle, Beijing is taking extremely cautious steps with regard to Minsk. It is expected that Beijing is likely to be ready to establish working relations with any government that will appear in Minsk, says Nezhdanov. </p> <p> </p> <p> “Further development of China-Belarus relations will be directly dependent on the dynamics of relations in the Russia-Belarus-West triangle. Taking cautious steps, Beijing will seek opportunities to protect its interests and investments in the Eastern European direction. However, if Lukashenko can overcome the political crisis by adopting a new Constitution and pacifying the protesters, the China-Belarus relations may be adjusted due to the increasing risks for investors and the increasing political risks,” the expert notes. </p> <p> </p> <p> As a result, the expert believes, the development of China-Belarus relations has been put on hold, as it is necessary to clarify a whole lot of mutually linked factors. First of all, we are talking about guarantees of implementation of the Belt and Road global initiative, in which Belarus is an important component as a potential transit point to the European market. The protracted crisis, along with growing contradictions between Belarus and the European Union, threatens China’s efforts to implement this initiative. </p> <p> </p> <p> Thus, an internal political settlement scenario, which would be acceptable for Beijing, implies mandatory normalization of Belarus-EU relations for fear of ruining the appeal of China’s transit projects under development in Belarus. End </p>
2020-12-11
Primepress
MINSK, Dec 10 - PrimePress. The prospects for Chinese-Belarusian relations will be heavily influenced by the context of relations in the Russia-Belarus-West triangle. At the same time, Beijing will look for opportunities to protect its foreign economic interests in the Eastern European direction, reckons Vladimir Nezhdanov, expert at the Centre for Integration Prospects Studies.
Nezhdanov’s article to this effect has been published on the website Eurasia. Expert.
Nezhdanov says China is closely monitoring the dynamics of the current domestic political crisis in Belarus. At the same time, the Chinese media mention several basic scenarios of the source of events. The first of these scenarios allows the transition to a substantive dialogue between the supporters of the current President Alexander Lukashenko and the opposition in order to jointly seek solutions to the crisis. The likely result would be a compromise of political elites and amendment to the Constitution of Belarus in order to reformat the political system, including the subsequent transit of power (redistribution of powers between the main power institutions) under international supervision.
The second scenario assumes the refusal of the Belarusian authorities to seek any compromises with their opponents, which may result in the escalation of internal political confrontation and corresponding increase of the sanctions pressure from the West.
Finally, Chinese experts do not rule out that Lukashenko may step down and emigrate under pressure from external and internal factors. This scenario implies that Belarus today, like Ukraine in 2013-2014, is in the centre of confrontation between Russia and the West, which only aggravates the domestic political crisis and gives additional uncertainty to the potential course of its development.
Among the reasons for protests in Belarus, China sees a bundle of both long-standing problems and fundamentally new challenges, the expert said.
Belarus’ economy remains unbalanced mainly due to the dominance of the public sector and dependence of the country’s leading enterprises on foreign markets. The negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic exacerbates this imbalance: in January-July 2020, Belarus' gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 1.6% year on year, exports of goods - by 20.2%, and the Belarusian ruble against the dollar fell by 19%.
"In addition to the above mentioned reasons for protest, there is a layer of economically independent people in Belarus who are ready to challenge the current political regime. In addition, the harsh actions of law enforcers and the authorities’ unpreparedness to engage in dialogue during the first days of the protest increased the loyalty of the population to the protesters.”
Russia’s and Europe’s interest in Belarus initially internationalized the political crisis in the country. Although China perceives Belarus protests are mainly in the context of the Russia-Belarus-West triangle, Beijing is taking extremely cautious steps with regard to Minsk. It is expected that Beijing is likely to be ready to establish working relations with any government that will appear in Minsk, says Nezhdanov.
“Further development of China-Belarus relations will be directly dependent on the dynamics of relations in the Russia-Belarus-West triangle. Taking cautious steps, Beijing will seek opportunities to protect its interests and investments in the Eastern European direction. However, if Lukashenko can overcome the political crisis by adopting a new Constitution and pacifying the protesters, the China-Belarus relations may be adjusted due to the increasing risks for investors and the increasing political risks,” the expert notes.
As a result, the expert believes, the development of China-Belarus relations has been put on hold, as it is necessary to clarify a whole lot of mutually linked factors. First of all, we are talking about guarantees of implementation of the Belt and Road global initiative, in which Belarus is an important component as a potential transit point to the European market. The protracted crisis, along with growing contradictions between Belarus and the European Union, threatens China’s efforts to implement this initiative.
Thus, an internal political settlement scenario, which would be acceptable for Beijing, implies mandatory normalization of Belarus-EU relations for fear of ruining the appeal of China’s transit projects under development in Belarus. End