Fitch improves outlook for Belarus' GDP dynamics in 2021 by 1.4pp to 2.1%
<p> MINSK, Nov 8 - PrimePress. Fitch Ratings has improved its forecast for Belarus’ gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021 by 1.4 percentage points to 2.1%. This is stated in Fitch’s commentary on latest rating action on the Belarusian economy published on November 5. </p> <p> </p> <p> “Fitch expects full-year growth of 2.1%, compared with our 0.7% projection at our previous review (in May). The pandemic poses a modest downside risk to growth and the vaccination rate is low, but as with 2020, the authorities have shied away from restrictions that have a meaningful impact on economic activity.” </p> <p> </p> <p> “Economic performance so far in 2021 has surpassed Fitch's expectations and macroeconomic stability has been maintained despite the imposition of further sanctions. The outperformance reflects a supportive external environment, with prices and production of key energy, chemical and mineral products all rising, while the IT sector continued to make a notable contribution to growth despite concerns over the departure of skilled personnel following the political events of 2020.” </p> <p> </p> <p> Fitch says: “We forecast growth to slow to 0.3% in 2022 as base effects dissipate and the impact of sanctions intensifies. Sanctions put on Belarus in 2020 were broadened after the forced landing in Minsk of an Athens-Vilnius flight in May and have since been subject to further iterations. There remain gaps in the sanctions that have mitigated their near-term impact. Belarusian companies will over time feel the effects of the loss of investment goods, which tend to be sourced from the EU. In addition, uncertainty about the reach of US sanctions, reputational risks, and the trajectory of future sanctions will act as a major drag on growth.” </p> <p> </p> <p> As previously reported, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on 12 Oct improved its forecast for Belarus’ GDP dynamics in 2021 by 2.5 percentage points from its April 2021 forecast (minus 0.4%) to 2.1%. The IMF forecast for 2022 promises Belarus a recovery growth of 0.5% of GDP (April’s forecast - 0.8%). </p> <p> </p> <p> The World Bank (WB) on 5 Oct improved its 2021 forecast for Belarus’ GDP dynamics by 3.4 percentage points to 1.2% and has downgraded the 2022 forecast by 4.7 percentage points to minus 2.8%. </p> <p> </p> <p> Belarus’ GDP decreased by 0.9% yoy in 2020, while the official forecast said it would grow by 2.8%. In January-August 2021, Belarus’ GDP grew by 3% yoy. In 2021, the Belarusian authorities forecast 1.8% GDP growth. In 2022, the Belarusian government expects the country's economy to expand 2.9%. End </p>
2021-11-09
Primepress
Fitch improves outlook for Belarus' GDP dynamics in 2021 by 1.4pp to 2.1%
MINSK, Nov 8 - PrimePress. Fitch Ratings has improved its forecast for Belarus’ gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021 by 1.4 percentage points to 2.1%. This is stated in Fitch’s commentary on latest rating action on the Belarusian economy published on November 5.
“Fitch expects full-year growth of 2.1%, compared with our 0.7% projection at our previous review (in May). The pandemic poses a modest downside risk to growth and the vaccination rate is low, but as with 2020, the authorities have shied away from restrictions that have a meaningful impact on economic activity.”
“Economic performance so far in 2021 has surpassed Fitch's expectations and macroeconomic stability has been maintained despite the imposition of further sanctions. The outperformance reflects a supportive external environment, with prices and production of key energy, chemical and mineral products all rising, while the IT sector continued to make a notable contribution to growth despite concerns over the departure of skilled personnel following the political events of 2020.”
Fitch says: “We forecast growth to slow to 0.3% in 2022 as base effects dissipate and the impact of sanctions intensifies. Sanctions put on Belarus in 2020 were broadened after the forced landing in Minsk of an Athens-Vilnius flight in May and have since been subject to further iterations. There remain gaps in the sanctions that have mitigated their near-term impact. Belarusian companies will over time feel the effects of the loss of investment goods, which tend to be sourced from the EU. In addition, uncertainty about the reach of US sanctions, reputational risks, and the trajectory of future sanctions will act as a major drag on growth.”
As previously reported, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on 12 Oct improved its forecast for Belarus’ GDP dynamics in 2021 by 2.5 percentage points from its April 2021 forecast (minus 0.4%) to 2.1%. The IMF forecast for 2022 promises Belarus a recovery growth of 0.5% of GDP (April’s forecast - 0.8%).
The World Bank (WB) on 5 Oct improved its 2021 forecast for Belarus’ GDP dynamics by 3.4 percentage points to 1.2% and has downgraded the 2022 forecast by 4.7 percentage points to minus 2.8%.
Belarus’ GDP decreased by 0.9% yoy in 2020, while the official forecast said it would grow by 2.8%. In January-August 2021, Belarus’ GDP grew by 3% yoy. In 2021, the Belarusian authorities forecast 1.8% GDP growth. In 2022, the Belarusian government expects the country's economy to expand 2.9%. End