Fitch forecasts 2.1% GDP decline in Belarus in 2020, 0.7% growth in 2021, 1% growth in 2022
<p> MINSK, Nov 17 - PrimePress. Fitch forecasts Belarus real GDP to contract by just 2.1% in 2020, 0.7% growth in 2021 and 1% in 2022, the agency said in a press release. </p> <p> </p> <p> As previously reported, on November 13, Fitch revised the outlook for the long-term issuer default rating (IDR) of Belarus in foreign exchange from ‘Stable’ to ‘Negative’ and affirmed the IDR at ‘B.’ Belarus’ GDP fell by 1.1% year on year in January-October 2020 to Br121.416 billion ($47.4 billion dollars at the exchange rate of the National Bank of Belarus). Belarusian authorities forecast GDP growth by 2.8% in 2020. </p> <p> </p> <p> “Fitch forecast Belarus real GDP to contract by just 2.1% in 2020, showing greater resilience to the coronavirus shock relative to rating and regional peers, as the country did not adopt harsh containment measures. We forecast 0.7% growth in 2021 and 1% in 2022 due to sluggish consumption and investment given the domestic political climate, slowdown in credit and real wage growth and a gradual recovery in external demand. The political crisis maintains the risk of strikes in key industries, reportedly with limited impact so far, and could also weaken growth prospect for the IT sector (7% of GDP), a driver of growth and service exports in recent years,” Fitch said. </p> <p> </p> <p> Fitch assumes that Belarus will maintain close economic links with Russia and that there is no extended breakdown in the bilateral relationship notwithstanding periodic disputes. </p> <p> </p> <p> “We assume the global economy will develop in line with the Global Economic Outlook published in September. In particular, Russia's GDP is expected to fall by 4.9% in 2020, followed by 3.6% growth in 2021,” reads the statement. End </p>
2020-11-18
Primepress
MINSK, Nov 17 - PrimePress. Fitch forecasts Belarus real GDP to contract by just 2.1% in 2020, 0.7% growth in 2021 and 1% in 2022, the agency said in a press release.
As previously reported, on November 13, Fitch revised the outlook for the long-term issuer default rating (IDR) of Belarus in foreign exchange from ‘Stable’ to ‘Negative’ and affirmed the IDR at ‘B.’ Belarus’ GDP fell by 1.1% year on year in January-October 2020 to Br121.416 billion ($47.4 billion dollars at the exchange rate of the National Bank of Belarus). Belarusian authorities forecast GDP growth by 2.8% in 2020.
“Fitch forecast Belarus real GDP to contract by just 2.1% in 2020, showing greater resilience to the coronavirus shock relative to rating and regional peers, as the country did not adopt harsh containment measures. We forecast 0.7% growth in 2021 and 1% in 2022 due to sluggish consumption and investment given the domestic political climate, slowdown in credit and real wage growth and a gradual recovery in external demand. The political crisis maintains the risk of strikes in key industries, reportedly with limited impact so far, and could also weaken growth prospect for the IT sector (7% of GDP), a driver of growth and service exports in recent years,” Fitch said.
Fitch assumes that Belarus will maintain close economic links with Russia and that there is no extended breakdown in the bilateral relationship notwithstanding periodic disputes.
“We assume the global economy will develop in line with the Global Economic Outlook published in September. In particular, Russia's GDP is expected to fall by 4.9% in 2020, followed by 3.6% growth in 2021,” reads the statement. End