EDB forecasts 0.1% GDP decline for Belarus in 2021
<p> MINSK, Nov 26 - PrimePress. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) forecasts that Belarus’ gross domestic product (GDP) will decline by 0.1% in 2021, which may be due to the consequences of prolonged social and political tension in the country. This is stated in the EDB’s 2021 macroeconomic forecast published on November 26. </p> <p> </p> <p> EDB analysts note that the duration of the economic recovery in Belarus is largely due to the heavy losses in 2020 caused by the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic and the domestic political crisis. </p> <p> </p> <p> "In Belarus, the GDP is expected to decline by 0.1% in 2021, and its volume will reach the level of the Q4 2019 in H1 2023. Limited fiscal reserves, low investment demand and unstable financial situation of the real sector will slow down the pace of recovery of the Belarusian economy,” the EDB forecast says. </p> <p> </p> <p> “The key factor constraining the recovery process is the consequences of prolonged social and political tension in the country. This will be reflected in low investment activity, as well as a loss of dynamism in the development of the IT-sector,” said Anatoly Kharitonchik, Senior Analyst at the EDB Country Analysis Centre. </p> <p> </p> <p> EDB experts point out that Belarus is the only EDB member country (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan) whose economy may become stagnant in 2021. </p> <p> </p> <p> “According to the EDB forecast, in 2021 the economy of Armenia will grow by 4.9%, Kazakhstan by 4.4%, Kyrgyzstan by 3.7%, Russia by 3.2% and Tajikistan by 6.1%. Full recovery of GDP to pre-crisis levels of Q4 2019 next year will only occur in Kazakhstan, where the decline in 2020 is considered relatively small,” the document says. </p> <p> </p> <p> At the same time, experts specify that the monetary policy in most countries of the region will remain stimulating in 2021: “This will support the process of economic recovery and ensure that inflation is close to targets. The average interbank market rate in Armenia is projected to be about 4.2% in 2021, in Belarus - 9.1%, in Kazakhstan - 8.3%, in Kyrgyzstan - 4%, in Russia - 4.2%”. </p>
2020-11-27
Primepress
EDB forecasts 0.1% GDP decline for Belarus in 2021
MINSK, Nov 26 - PrimePress. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) forecasts that Belarus’ gross domestic product (GDP) will decline by 0.1% in 2021, which may be due to the consequences of prolonged social and political tension in the country. This is stated in the EDB’s 2021 macroeconomic forecast published on November 26.
EDB analysts note that the duration of the economic recovery in Belarus is largely due to the heavy losses in 2020 caused by the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic and the domestic political crisis.
"In Belarus, the GDP is expected to decline by 0.1% in 2021, and its volume will reach the level of the Q4 2019 in H1 2023. Limited fiscal reserves, low investment demand and unstable financial situation of the real sector will slow down the pace of recovery of the Belarusian economy,” the EDB forecast says.
“The key factor constraining the recovery process is the consequences of prolonged social and political tension in the country. This will be reflected in low investment activity, as well as a loss of dynamism in the development of the IT-sector,” said Anatoly Kharitonchik, Senior Analyst at the EDB Country Analysis Centre.
EDB experts point out that Belarus is the only EDB member country (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan) whose economy may become stagnant in 2021.
“According to the EDB forecast, in 2021 the economy of Armenia will grow by 4.9%, Kazakhstan by 4.4%, Kyrgyzstan by 3.7%, Russia by 3.2% and Tajikistan by 6.1%. Full recovery of GDP to pre-crisis levels of Q4 2019 next year will only occur in Kazakhstan, where the decline in 2020 is considered relatively small,” the document says.
At the same time, experts specify that the monetary policy in most countries of the region will remain stimulating in 2021: “This will support the process of economic recovery and ensure that inflation is close to targets. The average interbank market rate in Armenia is projected to be about 4.2% in 2021, in Belarus - 9.1%, in Kazakhstan - 8.3%, in Kyrgyzstan - 4%, in Russia - 4.2%”.