EDB expects Belarus inflation to slow down from 9.2% in 2021 to 6.5% in 2022
<p> MINSK, Sep 20 - PrimePress. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) forecasts a slowdown in Belarus’ inflation growth fr om 9.2% in 2021 to 6.5% in December 2022, the bank said its regular Macroeconomic Review published on 20 September. </p> <p> </p> <p> “The EDB forecasts a slowdown in inflation growth (in Belarus – editor’s note) from 9.2% in 2021 to 6.5% at the end of 2022. The inflation slowdown in 2022 may reflect the reducing growth in commodity prices in the world and the gradual recovery of the global supply chain. However, higher inflation expectations of households and businesses will lim it the speed at which inflation approaches the National Bank’s target levels. Risk factors include the uncertainty of sanctions, lower grain harvest in Belarus, as well as the likelihood of an increase in emission lending to temporarily maintain high GDP growth,” the review says. </p> <p> </p> <p> According to EDB experts, inflation in Belarus in August 2021 amounted to 9.8% year-on-year, unchanged month on month. “High prices are supported by increased inflationary expectations, global delays in supply, the rise in prices of commodities on the world market. A lower grain harvest (down 19.4% yoy as of September 15) could be an additional inflationary factor for the remainder of the year. We expect inflation to remain near current levels through November and slow to 9.2% yoy in December,” the survey said. </p> <p> </p> <p> In addition, the EDB baseline scenario forecasts a moderate weakening of the Belarusian ruble against the dollar as a result of the impact of sanctions, devaluation expectations and high inflation in Belarus. Average exchange rate of Belarusian ruble against dollar is projected at about Br2.55/$1 in 2021 and Br2.67/$1 in 2022. “The forecast uncertainty is very high because of the difficulty of assessing the potential impact of Western restrictions on the Belarusian exports, investment inflow and behaviour of households,” the EDB experts noted. End </p> <p> </p>
2021-09-21
Primepress
EDB expects Belarus inflation to slow down from 9.2% in 2021 to 6.5% in 2022
MINSK, Sep 20 - PrimePress. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) forecasts a slowdown in Belarus’ inflation growth fr om 9.2% in 2021 to 6.5% in December 2022, the bank said its regular Macroeconomic Review published on 20 September.
“The EDB forecasts a slowdown in inflation growth (in Belarus – editor’s note) from 9.2% in 2021 to 6.5% at the end of 2022. The inflation slowdown in 2022 may reflect the reducing growth in commodity prices in the world and the gradual recovery of the global supply chain. However, higher inflation expectations of households and businesses will lim it the speed at which inflation approaches the National Bank’s target levels. Risk factors include the uncertainty of sanctions, lower grain harvest in Belarus, as well as the likelihood of an increase in emission lending to temporarily maintain high GDP growth,” the review says.
According to EDB experts, inflation in Belarus in August 2021 amounted to 9.8% year-on-year, unchanged month on month. “High prices are supported by increased inflationary expectations, global delays in supply, the rise in prices of commodities on the world market. A lower grain harvest (down 19.4% yoy as of September 15) could be an additional inflationary factor for the remainder of the year. We expect inflation to remain near current levels through November and slow to 9.2% yoy in December,” the survey said.
In addition, the EDB baseline scenario forecasts a moderate weakening of the Belarusian ruble against the dollar as a result of the impact of sanctions, devaluation expectations and high inflation in Belarus. Average exchange rate of Belarusian ruble against dollar is projected at about Br2.55/$1 in 2021 and Br2.67/$1 in 2022. “The forecast uncertainty is very high because of the difficulty of assessing the potential impact of Western restrictions on the Belarusian exports, investment inflow and behaviour of households,” the EDB experts noted. End