EDB affirms own forecast: Belarus’ annual inflation expected in above 9% till Nov 2021, slowdown to 8.7% expected in Dec 2021
<p> MINSK, Aug 16 - PrimePress. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) confirms its own forecast for annual inflation in Belarus in the period till November 2021 to be higher than 9% and to slow down to 8.7 % in December. The EDB stated that in a weekly review of economic news published on August 16. </p> <p> </p> <p> EDB experts say that the slowdown of inflation growth in Belarus in July 2021 to 9.8% yoy from 9.9% in June was “within the expectations of the EDB”. Earlier, in June and July 2021, the EDB had projected annual inflation in Belarus above 9% in the second half of the year and a slowdown to 8.7% in December 2021. </p> <p> </p> <p> “It is important to note the slowdown in monthly core inflation. With seasonal fluctuations eliminated, its value is estimated by EDB at 0.5-0.6% in July, while in February-June it was in the range of 0.8-0.9%. Stabilisation of global food and metal prices may have contributed to the slowdown in core inflation. However, the core CPI increase, with seasonal factors eliminated, still remains elevated. The rise in consumer prices is likely to continue to be affected by the carryover of increased producer costs, as well as high inflation expectations. The EDB maintains the forecast of annual inflation above 9% up to and including November and its slowdown to 8.7% in December,” the EDB said in its outlook. </p> <p> </p> <p> At the same time, according to the EDB, “one of the risk factors for inflation is the decline in grain yield: as of August 13 the crop yield was more than 16% lower than the previous year’s. Earlier, on July 12, 2021, the EDB experts noted among the major risks of accelerating inflation the uncertainty of “the consequences of the restrictive measures of the USA, the EU and the UK”. </p> <p> </p> <p> According to the National Statistical Committee of Belarus (Belstat), Belarus’ inflation stood at 0.1% in July 2021 and 5.9% in January-July. In July 2021, prices increased by 9.8% year on year, while in January-July 2021 - by 8.9% yoy. </p> <p> </p> <p> As previously reported, in 2020, Belarus’ inflation was at 7.4%, with the official forecast standing at 5%. The inflation forecast for 2021 is also not more than 5%. End </p>
2021-08-17
Primepress
EDB affirms own forecast: Belarus’ annual inflation expected in above 9% till Nov 2021, slowdown to 8.7% expected in Dec 2021
MINSK, Aug 16 - PrimePress. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) confirms its own forecast for annual inflation in Belarus in the period till November 2021 to be higher than 9% and to slow down to 8.7 % in December. The EDB stated that in a weekly review of economic news published on August 16.
EDB experts say that the slowdown of inflation growth in Belarus in July 2021 to 9.8% yoy from 9.9% in June was “within the expectations of the EDB”. Earlier, in June and July 2021, the EDB had projected annual inflation in Belarus above 9% in the second half of the year and a slowdown to 8.7% in December 2021.
“It is important to note the slowdown in monthly core inflation. With seasonal fluctuations eliminated, its value is estimated by EDB at 0.5-0.6% in July, while in February-June it was in the range of 0.8-0.9%. Stabilisation of global food and metal prices may have contributed to the slowdown in core inflation. However, the core CPI increase, with seasonal factors eliminated, still remains elevated. The rise in consumer prices is likely to continue to be affected by the carryover of increased producer costs, as well as high inflation expectations. The EDB maintains the forecast of annual inflation above 9% up to and including November and its slowdown to 8.7% in December,” the EDB said in its outlook.
At the same time, according to the EDB, “one of the risk factors for inflation is the decline in grain yield: as of August 13 the crop yield was more than 16% lower than the previous year’s. Earlier, on July 12, 2021, the EDB experts noted among the major risks of accelerating inflation the uncertainty of “the consequences of the restrictive measures of the USA, the EU and the UK”.
According to the National Statistical Committee of Belarus (Belstat), Belarus’ inflation stood at 0.1% in July 2021 and 5.9% in January-July. In July 2021, prices increased by 9.8% year on year, while in January-July 2021 - by 8.9% yoy.
As previously reported, in 2020, Belarus’ inflation was at 7.4%, with the official forecast standing at 5%. The inflation forecast for 2021 is also not more than 5%. End