EBRD forecasts 5% fall of Belarus’ GDP in 2020
<p> MINSK, May 13 - PrimePress. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) predicts a 5% reduction in Belarus’ gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 due to problems in the oil and gas sector and the expected recession in Russia caused by the coronavirus pandemic, reads the spring Regional Economic Prospects report by the bank published on May 13. </p> <p> </p> <p> In the November 2019 report, the EBRD predicted 1.2% GDP growth in Belarus in 2020. Now, the bank experts downgraded that forecast by 6.2 percentage points. </p> <p> </p> <p> According to the EBRD, the Belarusian economy will be mostly affected by the problems in the energy sector emerged in 2019 after the contaminated oil incident in the Druzhba pipeline, which resulted in a 1.8% rise in the current account deficit in 2019 and, accordingly, the high pressure on the national currency and the gold and foreign exchange reserves. </p> <p> </p> <p> Oil supplies to Belarus halved in the first quarter of 2020, which lead to a considerable decrease in exports and wholesale turnover. </p> <p> </p> <p> The coronavirus pandemic hit the Belarusian economy highly vulnerable to the external environment (primarily oil quotes), large-scale export-import dependence on Russia and the expected recession in the Russian economy (EBRD forecasts a 4.5% GDP decline in 2020). </p> <p> </p> <p> On the plus side, the EBRD points at the strong fiscal position of the Belarusian government that ensured increased tax revenues. </p> <p> </p> <p> The EBRD expects that Belarus’s GDP will return to up to 3.5% growth in 2021. </p> <p> </p> <p> As reported, the International Monetary Fund predicts a 6% reduction in Belarus’ GDP in 2020 followed by 3.5% growth in 2021, and the World Bank expects a 4% fall and then 1% growth in 2021. </p> <p> </p> <p> The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is an international financial institution headquartered in London, created to support the economic transformations in Central and Eastern Europe. Since the start of its operations in Belarus in 1992, the EBRD has invested over €2.9 billion in 130 projects in various sectors of the country’s economy. In 2016 the EBRD adopted a new strategy for operations in Belarus in 2016-2019. The document abolished the calibrated approach, which restricted EBRD operations with the public sector. Belarus and the EBRD have been implementing a number of projects in utilities industry, energy saving, transport infrastructure and environment protection. </p> <p> </p> <p> The Belarusian government is in talks with the EBRD on a $1 billion loan for the sectors most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. End </p>
2020-05-14
Primepress
EBRD forecasts 5% fall of Belarus’ GDP in 2020
MINSK, May 13 - PrimePress. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) predicts a 5% reduction in Belarus’ gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 due to problems in the oil and gas sector and the expected recession in Russia caused by the coronavirus pandemic, reads the spring Regional Economic Prospects report by the bank published on May 13.
In the November 2019 report, the EBRD predicted 1.2% GDP growth in Belarus in 2020. Now, the bank experts downgraded that forecast by 6.2 percentage points.
According to the EBRD, the Belarusian economy will be mostly affected by the problems in the energy sector emerged in 2019 after the contaminated oil incident in the Druzhba pipeline, which resulted in a 1.8% rise in the current account deficit in 2019 and, accordingly, the high pressure on the national currency and the gold and foreign exchange reserves.
Oil supplies to Belarus halved in the first quarter of 2020, which lead to a considerable decrease in exports and wholesale turnover.
The coronavirus pandemic hit the Belarusian economy highly vulnerable to the external environment (primarily oil quotes), large-scale export-import dependence on Russia and the expected recession in the Russian economy (EBRD forecasts a 4.5% GDP decline in 2020).
On the plus side, the EBRD points at the strong fiscal position of the Belarusian government that ensured increased tax revenues.
The EBRD expects that Belarus’s GDP will return to up to 3.5% growth in 2021.
As reported, the International Monetary Fund predicts a 6% reduction in Belarus’ GDP in 2020 followed by 3.5% growth in 2021, and the World Bank expects a 4% fall and then 1% growth in 2021.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is an international financial institution headquartered in London, created to support the economic transformations in Central and Eastern Europe. Since the start of its operations in Belarus in 1992, the EBRD has invested over €2.9 billion in 130 projects in various sectors of the country’s economy. In 2016 the EBRD adopted a new strategy for operations in Belarus in 2016-2019. The document abolished the calibrated approach, which restricted EBRD operations with the public sector. Belarus and the EBRD have been implementing a number of projects in utilities industry, energy saving, transport infrastructure and environment protection.
The Belarusian government is in talks with the EBRD on a $1 billion loan for the sectors most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. End