EBRD downgrades Belarus’ GDP growth forecast to 0.5% in 2021-2022
<p> MINSK, Jun 29 - PrimePress. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) projects 0.5% GDP growth in Belarus in 2021-2022, which is 0.5 p.p. below the bank’s September 2020 forecast. This is stated in the June 2021 of the EBRD Regional Economic Prospects. </p> <p> </p> <p> “Belarus’ economic recovery in 2021 is unlikely amid rising uncertainties. The economy contracted by only 0.9% in 2020 due to the absence of a full lockdown and increased support to the state sector. </p> <p> </p> <p> The COVID-19 impact on non-tradable services was less severe than in other countries, while ICT services and agriculture even enjoyed 5.3% and 7.0% growth, respectively. On the other hand, the large export sector was particularly affected by the global pandemic, falling by 26.4% year on year in 2020.” </p> <p> </p> <p> “Lower access to external financing and rising fiscal deficits led foreign reserves to decline from a historical high of US$ 9.4 billion at the end of 2019 to US$ 7.3 billion in April 2021. The home currency also came under renewed pressure after presidential elections in August 2020, bringing total depreciation against the US dollar to 18.2% throughout 2020, before stabilising in 2021. </p> <p> </p> <p> “The economy is expected to stagnate, with growth of just 0.5 per cent in both 2021 and 2022. The build-up of economic sanctions, possibly hitting the export-oriented potash and petroleum industries, is a serious risk for growth prospects. While renewed direct lending by state-owned banks to state-owned enterprises sustained the resilience of the economy throughout last year’s crisis, it increases vulnerabilities in the medium term.” </p> <p> </p> <p> The government of Belarus approved a medium-term financial program of the national budget for 2021-2023 under Resolution #227 of April 20, 2012, according to which the Belarusian GDP growth is planned at the level of 1.8% in 2021, 2.9% in 2022 and 3.8% in 2023. </p> <p> </p> <p> The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is an international financial institution headquartered in London, created to support the economic transformations in Central and Eastern Europe. Since the start of its operations in Belarus in 1992, the EBRD has invested €2.9 billion in 137 projects in various sectors of the country’s economy. In 2016 the EBRD adopted a new strategy for operations in Belarus in 2016-2019. The document abolished the calibrated approach, which restricted EBRD operations with the public sector. Belarus and the EBRD have been implementing a number of projects in the financial sector, utilities industry, and transport infrastructure. End </p>
2021-06-30
Primepress
EBRD downgrades Belarus’ GDP growth forecast to 0.5% in 2021-2022
MINSK, Jun 29 - PrimePress. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) projects 0.5% GDP growth in Belarus in 2021-2022, which is 0.5 p.p. below the bank’s September 2020 forecast. This is stated in the June 2021 of the EBRD Regional Economic Prospects.
“Belarus’ economic recovery in 2021 is unlikely amid rising uncertainties. The economy contracted by only 0.9% in 2020 due to the absence of a full lockdown and increased support to the state sector.
The COVID-19 impact on non-tradable services was less severe than in other countries, while ICT services and agriculture even enjoyed 5.3% and 7.0% growth, respectively. On the other hand, the large export sector was particularly affected by the global pandemic, falling by 26.4% year on year in 2020.”
“Lower access to external financing and rising fiscal deficits led foreign reserves to decline from a historical high of US$ 9.4 billion at the end of 2019 to US$ 7.3 billion in April 2021. The home currency also came under renewed pressure after presidential elections in August 2020, bringing total depreciation against the US dollar to 18.2% throughout 2020, before stabilising in 2021.
“The economy is expected to stagnate, with growth of just 0.5 per cent in both 2021 and 2022. The build-up of economic sanctions, possibly hitting the export-oriented potash and petroleum industries, is a serious risk for growth prospects. While renewed direct lending by state-owned banks to state-owned enterprises sustained the resilience of the economy throughout last year’s crisis, it increases vulnerabilities in the medium term.”
The government of Belarus approved a medium-term financial program of the national budget for 2021-2023 under Resolution #227 of April 20, 2012, according to which the Belarusian GDP growth is planned at the level of 1.8% in 2021, 2.9% in 2022 and 3.8% in 2023.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is an international financial institution headquartered in London, created to support the economic transformations in Central and Eastern Europe. Since the start of its operations in Belarus in 1992, the EBRD has invested €2.9 billion in 137 projects in various sectors of the country’s economy. In 2016 the EBRD adopted a new strategy for operations in Belarus in 2016-2019. The document abolished the calibrated approach, which restricted EBRD operations with the public sector. Belarus and the EBRD have been implementing a number of projects in the financial sector, utilities industry, and transport infrastructure. End