DETAILS: What will become of Belarusian-EU relations after presidential election in Belarus
<p> MINSK, Aug 20 – PrimePress. The European Union has refused to recognize the results of the presidential election in Belarus. On Wednesday, August 19, at the emergency summit on Belarus, heads of EU member states and governments unanimously disagreed with the results of the presidential election. </p> <p> </p> <p> German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated: “There is no doubt that there were massive violations. These elections were neither fair nor free, and for this reason the result of these elections cannot be recognized. We condemn violence against people”. She also stressed that all political prisoners should be unconditionally released. </p> <p> </p> <p> For his part, President of the European Council, Charles Michel, noted that the election results will not be recognized. He also assured that the EU will impose sanctions against those responsible for violence and election rigging. </p> <p> </p> <p> President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said the European Union is ready to accompany the peaceful democratic transition of power in Belarus. </p> <p> </p> <p> According to Reuters, six EU countries support a strong response to the Belarusian authorities, primarily Austria, Germany and Sweden. At the same time Poland, the Czech Republic and the Baltic States are in favour of mediation in negotiations between the Belarusian opposition and Lukashenko. Hungary feel sceptical about the idea of imposing sanctions. However, according to diplomats, Budapest will agree to support a limited list of people whose assets will be frozen in the EU and banned fr om entering the EU. The diplomats informed the agency that the black list could be prepared and submitted for voting by the end of the month. </p> <p> </p> <p> Assistance to civil society </p> <p> </p> <p> The European Commission has decided to provide financial support to the Belarusian people in the amount of €53 million, wh ere three million are intended for victims of repression, while the rest will be spent to minimize the consequences of the coronavirus. </p> <p> </p> <p> It should be noted that the Belarusian authorities failed to get support from the EU to combat the consequences of the coronavirus in May 2020. In April, the Ministry of Finance of Belarus discussed with the EU bodies the possibility of providing €60 million to the country. The conditions for granting the EU macro-financial assistance were cooperation with the IMF, respect for democratic mechanisms, including a multiparty system, the rule of law and respect for human rights. </p> <p> </p> <p> In May, the European Parliament approved the provision of macro-financial assistance to Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, but not to Belarus. The total amount of the loan package was €3 billion, of which €1.2 billion was allocated for Ukraine, €150 million for Georgia and €100 million for Moldova. </p> <p> </p> <p> Dynamics of Belarus-EU relations has been improving in recent years </p> <p> </p> <p> The dynamics of the bilateral dialogue with the European Union has been unstable throughout the modern history of Belarus. The priority in the rhetoric of the European officials is the political agenda. Since 1996 Brussels has been consistently putting pressure on the Belarusian authorities due to systematic violation of human rights, absence of freedom of speech and authoritarian system of state administration. </p> <p> </p> <p> In 2004, the EU for the first time initiated a number of sanctions against Belarus, which was a response to disappearances of opposition figures. </p> <p> </p> <p> In 2008, amid deterioration of Belarus-Russia relations and refusal of the Republic of Belarus to recognize the sovereignty of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the EU suspended the sanctions. In view of normalization of relations, Belarus was integrated into the Eastern Partnership initiative, a project of the European Union aimed at economic integration and political liberalization with the post-Soviet countries. </p> <p> </p> <p> However already in 2011 (after the 2010presidential election), the EU again introduced an expanded package of sanctions against Minsk due to gross violations of democratic election standards, as well as the unjustified use of force against peaceful protesters. </p> <p> </p> <p> In 2016, the EU decided to partially suspend the sanctions for Belarus’ contribution to the resolution of the armed conflict in Ukraine. Since then, there have been significant positive developments in bilateral relations, a serious increase in the density of bilateral contacts and the number of joint projects. </p> <p> </p> <p> In particular, the Strengthening Private Initiative Growth in Belarus (SPRING) project has been implemented to support economic initiative, competitiveness and innovation for inclusive local development. The project budget amounted to $9.5 million. The project has developed a number of recommendations and methodologies and is providing advice, but the main funding is aimed at supporting regional start-ups and clusters. </p> <p> </p> <p> Brussels has actively contributed to Belarus’ accession to the WTO. EU financial institutions actively expanded the borders of cooperation with Minsk. For example, in 2017 a framework agreement between Belarus and the European Investment Bank was signed, and in 2019 the bank granted its first loan. It is intended to finance the infrastructure project “Transport Communication of Belarus”, which includes reconstruction of the M7/E28 motorway (Minsk - Oshmyany - border of the Republic of Lithuania and the road border crossing "Kamenny Log", worth €110 million. </p> <p> </p> <p> It should also be noted that 2019 was a record year for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in terms of investments in Belarus (€390 million). </p> <p> </p> <p> However, Belarus is the only country in the Eastern Partnership (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine), which has not signed a framework agreement on partnership with the EU and, accordingly, the parties do not have a modern legal framework for cooperation. So far, relations have been based on the agreement concluded between the USSR and the then European Economic Community in 1989. </p> <p> </p> <p> The last time the need to conclude a partnership agreement was discussed in June 2020, when Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makey expressed interest in signing such an agreement as soon as possible. </p> <p> </p> <p> We would also like to remind that the agreement on visa facilitation and readmission between Belarus and the EU, signed on January 8, 2020 in Brussels, has been under consideration for more than five years, their signing was postponed by date, the level of representation at the conclusion of the agreements was reduced. Lukashenko decided to sign them in September 2019 and the official commentary of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry said that this was “not an easy decision”, taken “only after a thorough assessment of all possible risks and consequences”. </p> <p> </p> <p> What Belarus loses from non-recognition of elections and EU sanctions </p> <p> </p> <p> The European Parliament has already declared Alexander Lukashenko persona non grata in the European Union. Judging by the rhetoric of EU officials, Brussels is determined to take action against the current regime, but most likely there is no talk about sanctions on certain sectors of the economy, but Belarus will suffer significant financial losses already. </p> <p> </p> <p> Acute political instability in the country will undermine the trust of European investors, as well as reduce the chances for European financial institutions to provide credit support to important infrastructure projects. </p> <p> </p> <p> Cooperation with official authorities in the framework of existing and new projects will most likely be frozen. </p> <p> </p> <p> Although, according to Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, the EU is ready to continue helping Belarus to reduce energy dependence on Russia. According to Morawiecki, the EU could “develop appropriate mechanisms to reduce dependence of Belarus on Russia”. “It is in the interests of Belarus, it is in the interests of Poland and the European Union,” said Morawiecki after the extraordinary summit of the EU on August 19. </p> <p> </p> <p> At the moment, Belarus seeks to diversify its oil imports against the background of periodic price disagreements with Russia. In particular, in 2020 Belarus purchased oil from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Norway, Saudi Arabia and the United States with delivery by sea through the ports in Klaipeda (Lithuania) and Odessa (Ukraine). In February 2020, the operator of the Polish section of the Druzhba pipeline PERN announced plans to organize pipeline transportation of oil entering the port of Gdansk in the eastern direction - through the sections of Gdansk - Plock and Plock - Adamowo. Adamowo Zastawa Oil Pumping Station is located in the linear part of the Druzhba pipeline near the border with Belarus. </p> <p> </p> <p> It should not be forget about the EU mediation in the negotiation process on Belarus’ accession to the WTO. The current political situation is likely to become an obstacle to Belarus’ accession to the WTO, which deprives Belarusian producers of the opportunity to receive preferences from the world trade platform. End </p>
2020-08-21
Primepress
MINSK, Aug 20 – PrimePress. The European Union has refused to recognize the results of the presidential election in Belarus. On Wednesday, August 19, at the emergency summit on Belarus, heads of EU member states and governments unanimously disagreed with the results of the presidential election.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated: “There is no doubt that there were massive violations. These elections were neither fair nor free, and for this reason the result of these elections cannot be recognized. We condemn violence against people”. She also stressed that all political prisoners should be unconditionally released.
For his part, President of the European Council, Charles Michel, noted that the election results will not be recognized. He also assured that the EU will impose sanctions against those responsible for violence and election rigging.
President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said the European Union is ready to accompany the peaceful democratic transition of power in Belarus.
According to Reuters, six EU countries support a strong response to the Belarusian authorities, primarily Austria, Germany and Sweden. At the same time Poland, the Czech Republic and the Baltic States are in favour of mediation in negotiations between the Belarusian opposition and Lukashenko. Hungary feel sceptical about the idea of imposing sanctions. However, according to diplomats, Budapest will agree to support a limited list of people whose assets will be frozen in the EU and banned fr om entering the EU. The diplomats informed the agency that the black list could be prepared and submitted for voting by the end of the month.
Assistance to civil society
The European Commission has decided to provide financial support to the Belarusian people in the amount of €53 million, wh ere three million are intended for victims of repression, while the rest will be spent to minimize the consequences of the coronavirus.
It should be noted that the Belarusian authorities failed to get support from the EU to combat the consequences of the coronavirus in May 2020. In April, the Ministry of Finance of Belarus discussed with the EU bodies the possibility of providing €60 million to the country. The conditions for granting the EU macro-financial assistance were cooperation with the IMF, respect for democratic mechanisms, including a multiparty system, the rule of law and respect for human rights.
In May, the European Parliament approved the provision of macro-financial assistance to Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, but not to Belarus. The total amount of the loan package was €3 billion, of which €1.2 billion was allocated for Ukraine, €150 million for Georgia and €100 million for Moldova.
Dynamics of Belarus-EU relations has been improving in recent years
The dynamics of the bilateral dialogue with the European Union has been unstable throughout the modern history of Belarus. The priority in the rhetoric of the European officials is the political agenda. Since 1996 Brussels has been consistently putting pressure on the Belarusian authorities due to systematic violation of human rights, absence of freedom of speech and authoritarian system of state administration.
In 2004, the EU for the first time initiated a number of sanctions against Belarus, which was a response to disappearances of opposition figures.
In 2008, amid deterioration of Belarus-Russia relations and refusal of the Republic of Belarus to recognize the sovereignty of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the EU suspended the sanctions. In view of normalization of relations, Belarus was integrated into the Eastern Partnership initiative, a project of the European Union aimed at economic integration and political liberalization with the post-Soviet countries.
However already in 2011 (after the 2010presidential election), the EU again introduced an expanded package of sanctions against Minsk due to gross violations of democratic election standards, as well as the unjustified use of force against peaceful protesters.
In 2016, the EU decided to partially suspend the sanctions for Belarus’ contribution to the resolution of the armed conflict in Ukraine. Since then, there have been significant positive developments in bilateral relations, a serious increase in the density of bilateral contacts and the number of joint projects.
In particular, the Strengthening Private Initiative Growth in Belarus (SPRING) project has been implemented to support economic initiative, competitiveness and innovation for inclusive local development. The project budget amounted to $9.5 million. The project has developed a number of recommendations and methodologies and is providing advice, but the main funding is aimed at supporting regional start-ups and clusters.
Brussels has actively contributed to Belarus’ accession to the WTO. EU financial institutions actively expanded the borders of cooperation with Minsk. For example, in 2017 a framework agreement between Belarus and the European Investment Bank was signed, and in 2019 the bank granted its first loan. It is intended to finance the infrastructure project “Transport Communication of Belarus”, which includes reconstruction of the M7/E28 motorway (Minsk - Oshmyany - border of the Republic of Lithuania and the road border crossing "Kamenny Log", worth €110 million.
It should also be noted that 2019 was a record year for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in terms of investments in Belarus (€390 million).
However, Belarus is the only country in the Eastern Partnership (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine), which has not signed a framework agreement on partnership with the EU and, accordingly, the parties do not have a modern legal framework for cooperation. So far, relations have been based on the agreement concluded between the USSR and the then European Economic Community in 1989.
The last time the need to conclude a partnership agreement was discussed in June 2020, when Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makey expressed interest in signing such an agreement as soon as possible.
We would also like to remind that the agreement on visa facilitation and readmission between Belarus and the EU, signed on January 8, 2020 in Brussels, has been under consideration for more than five years, their signing was postponed by date, the level of representation at the conclusion of the agreements was reduced. Lukashenko decided to sign them in September 2019 and the official commentary of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry said that this was “not an easy decision”, taken “only after a thorough assessment of all possible risks and consequences”.
What Belarus loses from non-recognition of elections and EU sanctions
The European Parliament has already declared Alexander Lukashenko persona non grata in the European Union. Judging by the rhetoric of EU officials, Brussels is determined to take action against the current regime, but most likely there is no talk about sanctions on certain sectors of the economy, but Belarus will suffer significant financial losses already.
Acute political instability in the country will undermine the trust of European investors, as well as reduce the chances for European financial institutions to provide credit support to important infrastructure projects.
Cooperation with official authorities in the framework of existing and new projects will most likely be frozen.
Although, according to Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, the EU is ready to continue helping Belarus to reduce energy dependence on Russia. According to Morawiecki, the EU could “develop appropriate mechanisms to reduce dependence of Belarus on Russia”. “It is in the interests of Belarus, it is in the interests of Poland and the European Union,” said Morawiecki after the extraordinary summit of the EU on August 19.
At the moment, Belarus seeks to diversify its oil imports against the background of periodic price disagreements with Russia. In particular, in 2020 Belarus purchased oil from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Norway, Saudi Arabia and the United States with delivery by sea through the ports in Klaipeda (Lithuania) and Odessa (Ukraine). In February 2020, the operator of the Polish section of the Druzhba pipeline PERN announced plans to organize pipeline transportation of oil entering the port of Gdansk in the eastern direction - through the sections of Gdansk - Plock and Plock - Adamowo. Adamowo Zastawa Oil Pumping Station is located in the linear part of the Druzhba pipeline near the border with Belarus.
It should not be forget about the EU mediation in the negotiation process on Belarus’ accession to the WTO. The current political situation is likely to become an obstacle to Belarus’ accession to the WTO, which deprives Belarusian producers of the opportunity to receive preferences from the world trade platform. End