Belarus understating numbers of COVID-19 victims
<p> MINSK, Feb 22 – PrimePress. According to official data of the Ministry of Health of Belarus, the number of registered coronavirus cases in Belarus as of February 19, 2021 stood at 275,322, while the number of deaths is 1,894 cases for the entire period of the coronavirus spread. </p> <p> Since the start of the coronavirus epidemic, Belarus has stopped publishing mortality data. Data on mortality in the second quarter of 2020, when there was the first wave of the disease, was handed over by Belstat employee to the UN. Then there were 5.6 thousand more deaths compared to the second quarter of 2019 (+18%) and these data have not been published anywhere but by the UN. </p> <p> According to a survey by the Belarusian consulting company SATIO, there were 11% of coronavirus sufferers in November. "Of the urban population aged 18-64 years old some 9-13% have been diagnosed with coronavirus, that is about 644 thousand people. At that time, the official number of infected people was 99,000, the discrepancy is significant," says SATIO research project manager Filipp Bikanov. </p> <p> Analysis of the official data on mortality in Belarus, sent to the UN, a comparison of figures with neighbouring countries and a survey conducted by SATIO indicate unreliability of official data on morbidity and mortality from coronavirus in Belarus. The discrepancy with the official data can be as much as 15 times. The experts who presented the SATIO report believe that the number of deaths associated with the coronavirus epidemic in Belarus in 2020 exceeds 20 thousand people. </p> <p> Here are some other results from SATIO's 2020 COVID-19 survey. </p> <p> In May the percentage of those who took social distancing measures was 80%, in September - 65%, in November the number of such people was already 76%. </p> <p> The proportion of children out of school in the first wave of the pandemic was much higher than in the second: in April 2020 it was 70% and in November 2020 it was 25%. On a ten-point scale, respondents rated the readiness of the Belarusian educational system to switch to distance learning as 4. </p> <p> The majority (69%) of respondents believe that the state has not done enough to reduce COVID-19 contamination. And the share of those who would not apply to a medical institution without serious symptoms of COVID-19 after contact with patients was 24% in June, in November - already 38%. </p> <p> More than half (54%) believe that during the first wave of the coronavirus, civic initiatives helped health workers cope more with the shortage of equipment and personal protective equipment. And only 11% believe that the government did so, while 35% believe both equally. </p> <p> </p> <h4>Commentary</h4> <p> </p> <p> At the beginning of the epidemic in Belarus, coronavirus was denied by the authorities. The population faced a problem of misinformation: official bodies, including the Ministry of Health, did not provide current data on the number of cases, and from 17 April 2020, the Ministry of Health stopped answering questions from journalists. </p> <p> The government also began to combat “fake news” and rumours about coronavirus-related deaths. Measures to stop the dissemination of news about increased coronavirus-related deaths in Belarus in non-governmental media were discussed at the level of MPs. The authorities aired the position that the coronavirus situation was under complete control and the risk of spread of the disease was low. </p> <p> Further, during the presidential election campaign, the coronavirus was revisited as a topic when it was necessary to limit the access of observers to the elections, Bikanov notes. </p> <p> The government accepted the second wave of the coronavirus; there was not as much denial as there was in the spring. </p> <p> Nevertheless, social distancing measures were not introduced in Belarus, mass events were not cancelled. The last example was the All-Belarusian People's Assembly of February 11-12, 2021, in which 2.7 thousand people from all over the country took part. Only a few of them wore masks during the event, the seating of people in the hall was dense, without social distancing. </p> <p> According to Andrei Yeliseyev, director of research at EAST Research Center, the underreporting of the coronavirus in Belarus is up to 15 times. </p> <p> "In Belarus, we can assume from scrap data that the number of deaths associated with the epidemic last year reaches and exceeds 20,000 people," said Yeliseyev. </p> <p> According to experts, COVID denial was one of the main reasons for the ensuing political crisis in Belarus. The state showed its unwillingness to recognise the serious problem and to help people on the required scale. Surveys have shown that people's trust in the health system, the education system and the authorities in general has been severely undermined by the state's response to the epidemic. </p> <p> Gennady Korshunov, analyst researcher at the European Humanities University and former director of the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, notes: "The state would stake on manipulative and vertical solution of the issues - from banal denial, to the situation in society, when people felt outside the field of responsibility of the state". In his view, this has caused social dynamics in Belarus in 2020, including political unrest. </p> <p> Education has been among the sectors that have changed significantly in response to the epidemic. There, says Yevgeny Krasnyansky, SATIO Executive Director, there were no uniform principles on what to do: each educational institution had to take its own measures on whether to organise distance learning, introduce a masked regime or not. </p> <p> “The COVID problem revealed system errors in education - the Education Code does not provide for remote control of knowledge, it is promised that this will be introduced in 2021. The system of distance learning, which should have appeared several years ago, is still not ready,” said Krasnyansky. </p> <p> In general, the state system in Belarus has proved unable to respond promptly and qualitatively to such non-standard challenges as the coronavirus pandemic, experts note. </p>
2021-02-22
Primepress
Belarus understating numbers of COVID-19 victims
MINSK, Feb 22 – PrimePress. According to official data of the Ministry of Health of Belarus, the number of registered coronavirus cases in Belarus as of February 19, 2021 stood at 275,322, while the number of deaths is 1,894 cases for the entire period of the coronavirus spread.
Since the start of the coronavirus epidemic, Belarus has stopped publishing mortality data. Data on mortality in the second quarter of 2020, when there was the first wave of the disease, was handed over by Belstat employee to the UN. Then there were 5.6 thousand more deaths compared to the second quarter of 2019 (+18%) and these data have not been published anywhere but by the UN.
According to a survey by the Belarusian consulting company SATIO, there were 11% of coronavirus sufferers in November. "Of the urban population aged 18-64 years old some 9-13% have been diagnosed with coronavirus, that is about 644 thousand people. At that time, the official number of infected people was 99,000, the discrepancy is significant," says SATIO research project manager Filipp Bikanov.
Analysis of the official data on mortality in Belarus, sent to the UN, a comparison of figures with neighbouring countries and a survey conducted by SATIO indicate unreliability of official data on morbidity and mortality from coronavirus in Belarus. The discrepancy with the official data can be as much as 15 times. The experts who presented the SATIO report believe that the number of deaths associated with the coronavirus epidemic in Belarus in 2020 exceeds 20 thousand people.
Here are some other results from SATIO's 2020 COVID-19 survey.
In May the percentage of those who took social distancing measures was 80%, in September - 65%, in November the number of such people was already 76%.
The proportion of children out of school in the first wave of the pandemic was much higher than in the second: in April 2020 it was 70% and in November 2020 it was 25%. On a ten-point scale, respondents rated the readiness of the Belarusian educational system to switch to distance learning as 4.
The majority (69%) of respondents believe that the state has not done enough to reduce COVID-19 contamination. And the share of those who would not apply to a medical institution without serious symptoms of COVID-19 after contact with patients was 24% in June, in November - already 38%.
More than half (54%) believe that during the first wave of the coronavirus, civic initiatives helped health workers cope more with the shortage of equipment and personal protective equipment. And only 11% believe that the government did so, while 35% believe both equally.
Commentary
At the beginning of the epidemic in Belarus, coronavirus was denied by the authorities. The population faced a problem of misinformation: official bodies, including the Ministry of Health, did not provide current data on the number of cases, and from 17 April 2020, the Ministry of Health stopped answering questions from journalists.
The government also began to combat “fake news” and rumours about coronavirus-related deaths. Measures to stop the dissemination of news about increased coronavirus-related deaths in Belarus in non-governmental media were discussed at the level of MPs. The authorities aired the position that the coronavirus situation was under complete control and the risk of spread of the disease was low.
Further, during the presidential election campaign, the coronavirus was revisited as a topic when it was necessary to limit the access of observers to the elections, Bikanov notes.
The government accepted the second wave of the coronavirus; there was not as much denial as there was in the spring.
Nevertheless, social distancing measures were not introduced in Belarus, mass events were not cancelled. The last example was the All-Belarusian People's Assembly of February 11-12, 2021, in which 2.7 thousand people from all over the country took part. Only a few of them wore masks during the event, the seating of people in the hall was dense, without social distancing.
According to Andrei Yeliseyev, director of research at EAST Research Center, the underreporting of the coronavirus in Belarus is up to 15 times.
"In Belarus, we can assume from scrap data that the number of deaths associated with the epidemic last year reaches and exceeds 20,000 people," said Yeliseyev.
According to experts, COVID denial was one of the main reasons for the ensuing political crisis in Belarus. The state showed its unwillingness to recognise the serious problem and to help people on the required scale. Surveys have shown that people's trust in the health system, the education system and the authorities in general has been severely undermined by the state's response to the epidemic.
Gennady Korshunov, analyst researcher at the European Humanities University and former director of the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, notes: "The state would stake on manipulative and vertical solution of the issues - from banal denial, to the situation in society, when people felt outside the field of responsibility of the state". In his view, this has caused social dynamics in Belarus in 2020, including political unrest.
Education has been among the sectors that have changed significantly in response to the epidemic. There, says Yevgeny Krasnyansky, SATIO Executive Director, there were no uniform principles on what to do: each educational institution had to take its own measures on whether to organise distance learning, introduce a masked regime or not.
“The COVID problem revealed system errors in education - the Education Code does not provide for remote control of knowledge, it is promised that this will be introduced in 2021. The system of distance learning, which should have appeared several years ago, is still not ready,” said Krasnyansky.
In general, the state system in Belarus has proved unable to respond promptly and qualitatively to such non-standard challenges as the coronavirus pandemic, experts note.