Belarus’ households show reduced expectations of inflation growth for next 12 months - National Bank

<p> MINSK, Apr 2 - PrimePress. Belarus’ private households have reduced their expectations of inflation growth for the next 12 months, according to the opinion poll conducted by the National Bank of Belarus (NBB) in March 2021. The data are published on the NBB’s website. </p> <p>   </p> <p> For example, 18.8% of respondents believe that inflation in the country will grow at a higher rate in the next 12 months than at present. In November 2020, 21.6% of respondents were of the same opinion. At the same time, in March 2021, the percentage of those, who believe that inflation in Belarus will slow down, increased compared to November 2020: 21.1% against 16%. The majority of respondents forecast that prices will grow as intensively in the next 12 months as they do now: 56.8% in March 2021 and 59.6% in November 2020. </p> <p>   </p> <p> Overall, despite an increase in the share of those who expect inflation to fall over the next 12 months, people’s expectations of inflation have risen from 11.3% in the last survey to 12.9% in the current survey. </p> <p>   </p> <p> According to the March 2021 survey, the perceived rate of inflation over the last 12 months is 12.9% (10.1% in November 2020). In March 2021, the percentage of respondents who said that prices had risen very strongly was 41.4% (35.8%), moderately 40.2% (43.8%) and slightly 16.3% (18.4%). </p> <p>   </p> <p> Conditions for big purchases have improved thanks to credit availability </p> <p>   </p> <p> According to the National Bank, 68.5% of respondents in March 2021 consider the current time to be bad for big purchases (68.8% in November 2020) and 76.3% consider it bad for big purchases on credit (77.1%). </p> <p>   </p> <p> Experts attribute some improvement in the opinion regarding favourable conditions for large purchases to credit programs resumed by banks and the noticeable devaluation of the Belarusian ruble in consumers' opinions, which allows to form an opinion about the benefits of such purchases in view of the expected depreciation of the national currency. </p> <p>   </p> <p> According to the March survey, 40.7% of respondents did not incur large expenses for the last three months (37.2% in November), which confirms the official data on the decline in consumer demand. Major medical expenses were reported by 16.1% (18.4%), home appliances - 21.5% (16.4%), computer equipment - 9.4% (17.3%), recreation and travel - 11.4% (4%), car repairs or purchase - 12.7% (14.3%), home purchase or repairs - 16.9% (16.2%) and education - 3.2% (11.3%). Other major spending was reported by 6.9% (7.8%). </p> <p>   </p> <p> Savings in cash preferred, demand for real estate is down </p> <p>   </p> <p> The present moment was referred to by 59.8% of respondents in March 2021 as a bad time for saving (59.1% in November 2020). The proportion of respondents who said that they would like to save in foreign currency fell slightly to 84.6% in the current survey compared to 84.8% in November 2020. </p> <p>   </p> <p> Cash deposits were named as a preferred form of savings in March 2021 by 31.6% (34.8% in November 2020), accordingly, the attractiveness of deposits at the bank has increased - 11.8% against 8.9% in the previous survey due to a slight increase in interest rates on deposits. The share of those who prefer savings in the form of gold, precious metals and insurance has slightly decreased - 17% (17.9% in November 2020). The attractiveness of securities increased slightly to 7.2% from 6.2% in the last survey. Due to falling real estate prices, 27% of respondents support the appeal of this instrument compared to 27.4% in the previous survey). </p> <p>   </p> <p> Belarus’ annual inflation accelerated to 8.7% in February 2021 from 7.7% in January 2021. Aggregate trend inflation in February 2021 was 6.5% vs. February 2020 against 5.9% in January 2021 on January 2020 and 5.6% in December 2020 on December 2019. End </p> <p>   </p>

2021-04-03

Primepress