Belarus’ aggregate GDP growth expected at 21.5% in 2021-2025 - programme

<p> MINSK, Aug 4 - PrimePress. Belarus’ gross domestic product (GDP) is due to expand by 21.5% in 2021-2025 compared to the level of 2020. The official programme of socio-economic development of Belarus for 2021-2025 was approved by presidential ordinance #292 of 29 July 2021, which was published on the National Legal Internet Portal on 4 August. </p> <p>   </p> <p> The document says: “amid increasing competition in the world, a development strategy oriented to foreign markets and to the promotion of the internal consumption becomes determinative for Belarus”. “Amid continuing uncertainty in the dynamics of external factors, the government’s activities in the new five-year period will be aimed to reduce the vulnerability of the economy to external shocks and to maximize the use of domestic reserves, the development of its own high-tech industry and the effective use of local resources,” the document says. </p> <p>   </p> <p> As it follows from the programme, Belarus’ aggregate GDP growth in 2021-2025 is expected to amount to 21.5% compared to the level of 2020: 1.8% in 2021 on 2020, 2.9% in 2022 on 2021, 3.8% in 2023 on 2022, 5.4% in 2024 on 2023, and 6.0% in 2025 on 2024. </p> <p>   </p> <p> In order to achieve the basic parameters of economic growth, it is planned, in particular, to create conditions to attract “long-term” money into the economy, provide growth of investment in fixed assets of more than 1.2 times compared to the 2020 level, increase exports of goods and services by more than $50 billion in 2025, diversify its structure, improve competitiveness of the manufacturing sector of economy, ensure its financial stability and create new high-tech industries; increase the share of services in GDP to 50-51%. </p> <p>   </p> <p> At the same time, it is planned to develop high-tech production in the pharmaceutical industry (including a domestic vaccine against COVID-19), bio-industry, optics and electronics, as well as the electrical industry and electric transport, robotics and instrument-making. </p> <p>   </p> <p> According to the programme, between 2021 and 2025, the new investment cycle aims “to increase the volume of investments and improve their efficiency by prioritizing the creation of new high-tech industries and regional infrastructure”. For instance, it is planned to implement “more than 50 major investment projects to create new enterprises and industries, including in the energy sector - completion of the second stage of the BelNPP, in the mining industry - Petrikov Mining and Processing Complex, Slavkali Industrial Association, in the agricultural sector - Belarusian National Biotechnology Corporation with the development of production of amino acids and vitamins, in furniture manufacturing - construction of the Polipol plant in Ivatsevichi (Brest Oblast). </p> <p>   </p> <p> The programme also provides for “enhancing the policy of rational import substitution with regard to the production of new high-tech and export-oriented goods”. “More than 260 new types of import-substituting products will be developed, of which about 25 are fundamentally new to the country, including electric trucks, battery-powered dump trucks, robot-pulling trucks without a cabin with a payload capacity of 136 tonnes, electric scooters, electric bicycles and recharging stations for them, amino acids used in production of feed for animals and birds, anticancer agents, petroleum coke, chrome- ersatz coated cardboard, PVC-coated awning material, electric cargo vehicles prepared for installation of unmanned driving systems, etc. Production of import-substituting products will increase to $22.3 billion, with a total output increase of $4 billion,” the programme says. </p> <p>   </p> <p> The programme also envisages cumulative export growth of 36.3% in 2021-2025 compared to the 2020 level. This includes an increase of 5.7% in 2021 on 2020, 5.8% in 2022 on 2021, 6.4% in 2023 on 2022, 6.1% in 2024 on 2023, and 7.9% in 2025 on 2024. </p> <p>   </p> <p> In value terms, exports in 2025 should exceed $50 billion, which will be the result of a “proactive foreign economic policy”. </p> <p>   </p> <p> “In terms of diversification of foreign markets, two tasks are to be resolved: not to allow the presence of national export products in traditional markets to be reduced; to maintain multi-vector foreign trade, increasing export volumes to China, EU, US and other countries, exploring new niches of the world market. Priority will be given to the growth of mutual trade and investment with the Union State, the EEU and CIS partner states. It is planned to increase the share of sales to the Chinese market to 5% of total exports of goods in 2025 (not less than $2 billion), and to the EU countries to 30%, with priority growth of non-resource exports. The target is an annual increase of 4 percentage points in exports of goods (excluding oil, oil products, potash and nitrogen fertilizers) of the combined share of the EU countries and the ‘far arc’ countries,” the programme says. </p> <p>   </p> <p> As previously reported, Belarus’ socioeconomic development program for 2016-2020 forecasted 12-15% GDP growth, which, in fact was around 3.5%. GDP of Belarus decreased in 2020 by 0.9% from 2019, the official growth forecast being 2.8%. GDP grew in 2019 by 1.2% year on year against the target of 4%. End </p>

2021-08-05

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