National Bank of Belarus predicts 2021 annual inflation at about 9%, 2022 - about 6%

<p> MINSK, Aug 2 - PrimePress. The National Bank of Belarus (NBB) expects year-on-year inflation in 2021 at about 9%, in 2022 - about 6%. This is stated in the report of the head of the main monetary policy and economic analysis of the National Bank, Dmitry Murin. </p> <p>   </p> <p> The report was presented at an extended session of the NBB Board on July 29, 2021, and was published on the website of the National Bank. </p> <p>   </p> <p> Murin said that in H1 2021 inflationary processes in Belarus continued to accelerate, with the annual increase in consumer prices reaching 9.9% in June. In annual terms, goods and services sold at free prices rose by 10.1%, while goods and services, prices and tariffs of which are regulated by the state, as well as the dynamics of which depends on the seasonality, - by 9.4%. </p> <p>   </p> <p> “Under current conditions it is expected that by the end of the third quarter of 2021 the annual inflation rate will remain close to the level established in June. This dynamic is largely due to the acceleration that has already taken place. Later on, the intensity of inflation processes will slow down: at the end of 2021, the increase in consumer prices is estimated to be around 9%. By the end of 2022, annual inflation is expected to approach 6%. All of this predetermines the necessity to continue the joint work of the government and the National Bank on further slowing down inflation and fixing it in the mid-term perspective at the level close to 5%,” reads the report. </p> <p>   </p> <p> Murin reminds that the current acceleration of inflationary processes “is the result of the cumulative impact of a number of both external and internal factors”. </p> <p>   </p> <p> Among the external pro-inflationary impulses he refers, in particular, to the growth of oil quotations on the global market, as well as the risk of increased inflationary background in the countries - major trading partners due to the continued restrictive measures in foreign trade in the context of the coronavirus pandemic. “Also, sanctions pressure on our state cannot be ignored, which could aggravate the balance of payments dynamics and increase devaluation pressure,” Murin said. </p> <p>   </p> <p> Among significant domestic pro-inflationary factors, he cites high inflation and devaluation expectations of economic agents, insufficient development of competition in the country, as well as low efficiency of many domestic enterprises. </p> <p>   </p> <p> Murin notes that the measures of monetary response taken by the National Bank - control of money supply, exchange rate stability in terms of flexible exchange rate, maintaining interest rates at positive levels in real terms - restrain the intensity of inflationary processes. </p> <p>   </p> <p> “Accordingly, the current approaches to the implementation of monetary policy will remain in place in the near future. The National Bank will ensure that its instruments are aimed at curbing inflationary processes and ensuring macroeconomic balance. In addition, the National Bank will focus on restoring the resource potential of the banking sector by creating conditions aimed at building confidence in the national currency and increasing savings of economic entities. Thus conditions will be created to support the recovery of economic growth. Taken together, these approaches will help restrain the intensity of inflationary processes and ensure balanced development of the Belarusian economy,” Murin said in his report. </p> <p>   </p> <p> According to the National Statistics Committee of Belarus (Belstat), inflation in Belarus was at 0.7% in June 2021; 5.8% in January-June. In June 2021, prices rose by 9.9% against June 2020; by 8.8% year on year in January-June 2021. </p> <p>   </p> <p> As previously reported, inflation in Belarus was at 7.4% in 2020, the official forecast being 5%. The inflation target for 2021 was set at 5% or below. End </p> <p>   </p>

2021-08-03

Primepress