EDB analysis: Belarus annual inflation will remain at about 10% in 2021
<p> MINSK, Oct 18 - PrimePress. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) considers that the annual inflation in Belarus in 2021 will remain at about 10% due to the rising food prices and a decline in grain yield. This is stated in the EDB’s weekly review of economic news published on 18 October. </p> <p> </p> <p> EDB experts say that Belarus saw 10.2% year-on-year inflation in September 2021 after 9.8% in August 2021. </p> <p> </p> <p> “The dynamics of inflation signals the likely realization of the risk previously indicated by the EDB analysts associated with a decline in the grain harvest. For instance, food prices rose by 11.2% year on year in September after rising by 9.5% a month earlier. The rise in domestic food prices is also reflected in the rise in global food prices and the key trading partner Russia. Non-food price growth slowed to 10.3% year-on-year in September fr om 11.4% in August, but remained strong amid heightened inflation expectations, global supply delays and higher global commodity prices. The likelihood of annual inflation remaining close to 10% at the end of 2021 has increased,” the survey said. </p> <p> </p> <p> In its regular Macroeconomic Review published on 20 September, the EDB forecasted a slowdown in Belarus’ inflation growth from 9.2% in 2021 to 6.5% in December 2022. “The inflation slowdown in 2022 may reflect the reducing growth in commodity prices in the world and the gradual recovery of the global supply chain. However, higher inflation expectations of households and businesses will lim it the speed at which inflation approaches the National Bank’s target levels. Risk factors include the uncertainty of sanctions, lower grain harvest in Belarus, as well as the likelihood of an increase in emission lending to temporarily maintain high GDP growth,” the September review said. </p> <p> </p> <p> According to official statistics, inflation in Belarus was at 1.3% in September 2021 and 7.5% in January-September. In September 2021, prices increased by 10.2% year on year, while in January-September 2021 - by 9.2% year on year. </p> <p> </p> <p> As previously reported, inflation in Belarus was at 7.4% in 2020, the official forecast being 5%. The inflation target for 2021 also stands at 5% or less. End </p> <p> </p>
2021-10-19
Primepress
EDB analysis: Belarus annual inflation will remain at about 10% in 2021
MINSK, Oct 18 - PrimePress. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) considers that the annual inflation in Belarus in 2021 will remain at about 10% due to the rising food prices and a decline in grain yield. This is stated in the EDB’s weekly review of economic news published on 18 October.
EDB experts say that Belarus saw 10.2% year-on-year inflation in September 2021 after 9.8% in August 2021.
“The dynamics of inflation signals the likely realization of the risk previously indicated by the EDB analysts associated with a decline in the grain harvest. For instance, food prices rose by 11.2% year on year in September after rising by 9.5% a month earlier. The rise in domestic food prices is also reflected in the rise in global food prices and the key trading partner Russia. Non-food price growth slowed to 10.3% year-on-year in September fr om 11.4% in August, but remained strong amid heightened inflation expectations, global supply delays and higher global commodity prices. The likelihood of annual inflation remaining close to 10% at the end of 2021 has increased,” the survey said.
In its regular Macroeconomic Review published on 20 September, the EDB forecasted a slowdown in Belarus’ inflation growth from 9.2% in 2021 to 6.5% in December 2022. “The inflation slowdown in 2022 may reflect the reducing growth in commodity prices in the world and the gradual recovery of the global supply chain. However, higher inflation expectations of households and businesses will lim it the speed at which inflation approaches the National Bank’s target levels. Risk factors include the uncertainty of sanctions, lower grain harvest in Belarus, as well as the likelihood of an increase in emission lending to temporarily maintain high GDP growth,” the September review said.
According to official statistics, inflation in Belarus was at 1.3% in September 2021 and 7.5% in January-September. In September 2021, prices increased by 10.2% year on year, while in January-September 2021 - by 9.2% year on year.
As previously reported, inflation in Belarus was at 7.4% in 2020, the official forecast being 5%. The inflation target for 2021 also stands at 5% or less. End