EBRD views external shocks as major threat to Belarusian economy
<p> MINSK, May 21 - PrimePress. The threat to the Belarusian economy is mainly posed by external shocks, reckons Dimitar Bogov, the EBRD's Regional Lead Economist for Eastern Europe and the Caucasus. </p> <p> </p> <p> The lead economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) for Eastern Europe Dimitar Bogov made a statement to this effect on May 21 during a webinar on the impact of the pandemic on the economy, business and households in Belarus. </p> <p> </p> <p> Bogov said that there are two basic channels for the impact of the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic on the economy. The first is the channel of quarantine measures. They seriously affect the domestic supply and demand. In Belarus, he said, it should not have a serious impact, as the country has not introduced strict quarantine measures. </p> <p> </p> <p> As for the second channel - external shocks, there are several channels of influence on the Belarusian economy. </p> <p> </p> <p> “The decline in tourism flows, the formation of global value chains - it will be seriously affected. Belarus is an open economy, where exports account for 70% of the GDP. The decline in global demand and disruption of supply chains can have a serious negative impact on the Belarusian economy. We have already seen the impact of this channel in the first quarter [of 2020] - in March alone exports fell by 15%. What will it be like in the second quarter, when the overwhelming number of European countries stopped working? We are sure that there will be a shock, a serious blow through this channel,” said Bogov. </p> <p> </p> <p> The second serious channel of influence on the Belarusian economy will be, in his opinion, a reduction in demand for petroleum products. Sectors, included in the global supply chains, will also suffer. </p> <p> </p> <p> Bogov told about the prospects of the Belarusian economy in the current conditions. </p> <p> </p> <p> “Some global supply chains are concentrated on only one country. Therefore, some countries are trying to diversify their suppliers. We see opportunities for supplies opening up, and Belarus is in a good position, having a good geographical position in this regard. Ukraine and Moldova have production facilities opened by Western European companies, Belarus is also close. Additional opportunities may include developing relations between Belarus and China. China will not allow itself to lose the Western European market - some Chinese companies will want to move their production sites closer to Europe, there will be an opportunity to use this position. It will allow the country to create a good chance to restore global supply chains after the crisis,” said Bogov. End </p>
2020-05-22
Primepress
EBRD views external shocks as major threat to Belarusian economy
MINSK, May 21 - PrimePress. The threat to the Belarusian economy is mainly posed by external shocks, reckons Dimitar Bogov, the EBRD's Regional Lead Economist for Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.
The lead economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) for Eastern Europe Dimitar Bogov made a statement to this effect on May 21 during a webinar on the impact of the pandemic on the economy, business and households in Belarus.
Bogov said that there are two basic channels for the impact of the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic on the economy. The first is the channel of quarantine measures. They seriously affect the domestic supply and demand. In Belarus, he said, it should not have a serious impact, as the country has not introduced strict quarantine measures.
As for the second channel - external shocks, there are several channels of influence on the Belarusian economy.
“The decline in tourism flows, the formation of global value chains - it will be seriously affected. Belarus is an open economy, where exports account for 70% of the GDP. The decline in global demand and disruption of supply chains can have a serious negative impact on the Belarusian economy. We have already seen the impact of this channel in the first quarter [of 2020] - in March alone exports fell by 15%. What will it be like in the second quarter, when the overwhelming number of European countries stopped working? We are sure that there will be a shock, a serious blow through this channel,” said Bogov.
The second serious channel of influence on the Belarusian economy will be, in his opinion, a reduction in demand for petroleum products. Sectors, included in the global supply chains, will also suffer.
Bogov told about the prospects of the Belarusian economy in the current conditions.
“Some global supply chains are concentrated on only one country. Therefore, some countries are trying to diversify their suppliers. We see opportunities for supplies opening up, and Belarus is in a good position, having a good geographical position in this regard. Ukraine and Moldova have production facilities opened by Western European companies, Belarus is also close. Additional opportunities may include developing relations between Belarus and China. China will not allow itself to lose the Western European market - some Chinese companies will want to move their production sites closer to Europe, there will be an opportunity to use this position. It will allow the country to create a good chance to restore global supply chains after the crisis,” said Bogov. End