Belarus’ business climate index goes up due to expectations of growing demand and production output in summer - National Bank

<p> MINSK, Jun 10 - PrimePress. The business climate index (BCI) measured by the National Bank of Belarus in February-April 2021 increased by 17.9 p. p. compared to November 2020 - January 2021 to minus 1.6% due to the seasonal increase of respondents’ expectations of changes in demand and production in the coming summer months. </p> <p>   </p> <p> This is stated in the Feb-Apr 2021 analytical review of the National Bank “Monitoring of Belarus real- sector enterprises”. </p> <p>   </p> <p> The seasonally adjusted BCI increased by 5.5 p.p. compared to the previous three months and amounted to minus 3.9%. </p> <p>   </p> <p> The economic situation in February-April 2021 worsened as compared to the previous three-month period: 52.8% of heads of enterprises said it was unfavourable (in November 2020 - January 2021 - 49.1%). </p> <p>   </p> <p> The economic situation of their enterprises was assessed as satisfactory by 67.5% of heads of enterprises, as bad - 24.9% (three months earlier - 70.5% and 20.9%, respectively). </p> <p>   </p> <p> Demand for products falling slower than expected </p> <p>   </p> <p> According to estimates of the heads of enterprises, over the past three months, the decline in demand has slowed down. The balance of responses on this issue made minus 18.1% (in the previous reporting period - minus 25.1%). </p> <p>   </p> <p> In Feb-Apr 2021, CEOs noted a slowdown in the rate of decline in the actual volume of production (contract works, transport services, goods turnover): the balance of responses increased compared to the previous period by 7.4 p.p. and amounted to minus 16.1%. </p> <p>   </p> <p> The factors limiting production growth were named by heads of enterprises as lack of cash receipts to finance current activities (46.7% of respondents), non-payments by consumers (45%), as well as lack of circulating assets (42.3%) and insufficient demand for products (39.2%). </p> <p>   </p> <p> In Feb-Apr 2021 the decrease in the physical volume of sales slowed down as compared with the preceding three-month period: the balance of the answers made minus 5.5% (minus 12.5% in the previous period). </p> <p>   </p> <p> The stocks of unsold products (facilities with construction deadlines, goods unsold for more than three months) decreased in industry (the balance of answers was minus 4.6%) and construction (minus 18.4%). At the same time, trade enterprises noted an increase in the physical volume of goods unsold for over three months (the balance of answers amounted to 1.3%). </p> <p>   </p> <p> Working capital deficit growing </p> <p>   </p> <p> In Feb-Apr 2021 56.7% of the enterprises participating in the survey have admitted a shortage of working capital (54.7% earlier). The majority of CEOs interviewed evaluated the impact of crediting conditions on the economic activities of enterprises as moderate (60.3% of the total number of participants in the survey). Among the lending conditions that worsened over the past three months, changes in loan costs were named by 21.2% of the respondents, changes in loan terms - 22.8%. </p> <p>   </p> <p> In Feb-Apr 2021, 71% of the interviewed heads of enterprises spoke in favour of keeping the Belarusian ruble at the current level as the desired exchange rate dynamics. 16.2% of respondents would prefer strengthening of the national currency, while 12.8% of monitoring participants indicated the expediency of its devaluation. In Feb-Apr 2021 respondents pointed to some weakening of the impact of changes in the exchange rate of Belarusian ruble on economic activity: the balance of answers on this question decreased from 14% to 10.5%. </p> <p>   </p> <p> Industrial output expected to increase, prices to grow </p> <p>   </p> <p> In May-July 2021 poll participants expect an increase in selling prices, a reduction in employment and an increase in the need for loans, as well as an increase in production and demand. </p> <p>   </p> <p> Specifically, in the industrial segment the index of expectations of changes in production volumes increased from 8% in the previous survey up to 22% in the current one; in transportation the index of expectations of changes in demand grew from minus 12.9% to plus 20.2%; in the trade sector the index of expectations of changes in sales volumes increased from minus 16.6% to plus 6.3%. </p> <p>   </p> <p> In addition, in the next three months survey participants expect an increase in consumer prices (91.1% of respondents) and a decrease in the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against the Russian ruble and the US dollar. End </p>

2021-06-11

Primepress